Blog post: The solace of secure quantum computing

“The only way to beat a machine is with another machine.” – Alan Turing

A recent story that physicists reversed time using quantum computing immediately grabbed my attention. It is a great read about how scientists restored a quantum computer to the state it had been in a moment earlier. I find this mind-blowing and confusing in a nice way, and there has been a fascinating debate around whether the experiment has anything to do with reversing the flow of time – or nothing at all.

I have to admit that I do not have a very clear opinion on whether time might be theoretically reversible. I kind of hope that it is, but equally I hope it isn’t. But what is clear to me is that the possibilities of quantum computing are vast and as a field it is simply very different to “normal” computing. Quantum computers calculate things simultaneously rather than going through calculations in sequenced, chronological order, where speed is limited by the laws of physics. If a “normal” computer is an Aston Martin, a quantum computer is a supersonic speed rocket. It is much, much faster.

This new understanding of computer speed results in two views: one that acknowledges how “good” causes can be accelerated, such as pharmaceutical discoveries or more accurate atmospheric models to help us understand and combat climate change. This idea of “humanizing quantum computing” is diametrically opposed to the one which predicts chaos and problems, for example by using quantum computing to crack the encryption mechanisms we currently consider sophisticated and secure.

Computers typically break passwords by going through combinations of characters and numbers – a process known as “brute forcing”. The time it takes for a computer to find the right combination is defined by password complexity and length. A password with eight random lowercase characters should take a contemporary supercomputer – a machine which is 100,000 times faster than a desktop computer – no longer than two seconds to break. Passwords with lower and upper case characters are broken in less than eight minutes; lower and upper case characters with numbers in around half an hour. Adding symbols increases this to some four hours. If you want to be on the safe side, use at least 10 characters and include a mix of numbers, lowercase letters, uppercase letters and symbols. This will keep one of today’s mid range supercomputers busy for three years, in which time hopefully you will have changed your password anyway.

Supercomputers will continue to gain speed and power, so the time taken to complete tasks like breaking passwords will be revised down significantly in the coming years. But whatever speed supercomputers gain, quantum computers will make them look like novices, like an under-8 football team taking on Juventus Turin. So going back to the password cracking task and considering the extra power of quantum computers, the theory is that quantum computing can break passwords much more easily – including the ones we think are extremely long and complex. Another theory argues that quantum computing could turn into supervillains, able to break the security mechanisms on which blockchain relies. As more and more applications such as loyalty cards or personal health records are built on underlying blockchain technology, the concern is that quantum computing might put our health and finances in danger.

All of this seems plausible to me, more or less. But the development of quantum computing is driven by the motivation to achieve benefits for us as people. Its objective is to make our world cleaner, better and safer. Whilst quantum computing might be used by criminals, its emergence is likely to accelerate the development of powerful new mechanisms which will be more secure and quantum-proof. It is likely that these will be developed well before quantum computing becomes a reality.

For now, time travel and password cracking make great headlines. They also give quantum computing and science as a whole a negative image. If the public thinks that a technology is incredibly esoteric, they will feel confused. And confusion can often lead to rejection and fear. This is why technology needs to be explained carefully and in a non-sensationalist way. Quantum computing may still be in its infancy but it is only a matter of time for it to be more widely deployed. When it arrives, we might be shaken, but should not be stirred. We should understand the risks it carries, but even more so embrace the opportunities it will bring.

Published 03 May 2019 on hkstrategies.com:
https://hkstrategies.co.uk/the-solace-of-secure-quantum-computing/

Blog post: Going, going, gone: the future of cash

I love thinking about my 1980s family holidays in Italy. Weeks spent on beaches, in ice cream shops, pizzerias and gaming arcades. Phone calls back home were strictly kept to three minutes as they were so ridiculously expensive. Everything was paid in cash. I remember how excited I felt when I was a Lira millionaire. It was exotic and precious.

As you can see, I have a very emotional attachment to cash. I like that I have much better control over how much I spend and that my children can use to learn how the financial system works. But I do not think that cash is very practical. I actually very rarely have cash with me. At a fun fair a few weekends ago, I had to hurry 10 minutes to a cashpoint and back so I could buy tokens for the rides, as the organisers did not accept cards. Without enormous pressure from various children, I would have walked on for sure.

I do not think cash is safe either. The number of people I personally know who have had cash stolen from them is in the dozens. Including myself. The number of people I know who had their bank card stolen and money taken from their account is – one. And their bank paid back the money within days as it could easily spot an unusual spending pattern. So if carrying cash is more risky, would it not make sense to get rid of it? It is exactly what Sweden does. But going completely cash-free is politically sensitive.

Cash does have its prize

Governments keep cash alive because it is a social method of making payments. It is accessible to everyone and it does not discriminate against anyone. It is the key payment method for the millions of people who do not have a bank account and are not able to use a card or mobile phone to make payments. When I was a teenager, my grandmother gave me the ‘secret handshake’. What made this gesture so meaningful was that there was an immediate tangible and therefore emotional result. Had she transferred money to my bank account it would have had a very different emotional effect on me. Yet, money is money, and the way it is being handled and passed on does not define its value.

What defines value though is cost. And cash is expensive. It needs to be designed, manufactured, transported, protected, counted and destroyed. Numbers that circulate indicate that the cost of cash is £130 per person per year. Many of us use price comparison websites to shave off a few pounds of our monthly mobile phone bills. If we add cost to the cash equation, it makes increasingly less sense to use it.

Cash – the only stalwart of privacy

A key argument for cash is the anonymity it provides. I am very much pro-privacy and try to avoid giving too much data about myself away. I do not, really, want anyone or any business to know how, where and when I spend my money, and to predict or even influence what I am going to do next. Yet I still prefer cards over cash. They are simply more secure and more convenient.

But for me, cards are transitional only. Once crypto-currencies evolve into a mainstream payments method and can be used for day to day financial transactions, the discussion around convenience vs security vs anonymity will become irrelevant. We will then be able to make payments in a private, anonymous and secure way. No more cards, no more cash needed. These currencies will likely be issued by national central banks, but neither private banks nor card providers can then control, dictate or profit from the way we choose to pay for goods and services.

When talking to our clients, most agree that this will take many years to get there, but the current state of payments is unsustainable and will drive adoption. The current situation is neither cashless-friendly nor cash-friendly. Most shops accept cards and sometimes only accept card payments, yet we still need cash machines to pay at festivals, market stalls or fun fairs. Having parallel payment infrastructures in place is neither efficient nor helpful.

The future is digital. It is not cash

Our lives have become digital. We WhatsApp our friends rather than calling them, and we send emails rather than writing letters by hand. Digital has not completely replaced the physical, and should never fully do so. But it is impacting the way we think, work and interact with each other. This is how we describe what it is our clients do when we speak to the media and other audiences: they create something new and “better” that has an impact on our lives.

Exchanging physical coins and notes is not contemporary anymore. In a few years, carrying around a small card made out of plastic will not be seen as contemporary either. Our digital lifestyles create massive shifts in our behaviours and these shifts will continue to affect the way we make payments. A recent example is the launch of Apple Pay in Germany – a country which traditionally has been cash friendly.

When it comes to cash, there is emotion on one side and practicality, convenience, security and anonymity on the other. We as human beings would not exist without our ability to have and share emotions. But if we see transactions, such as buying or selling products, as a rational way to deal with other human beings, then the way we fulfil these transactions should be rational too. Cash may not be gone yet. But it is only a matter of time before it will be a thing of the past, evoking pleasant memories.

Published 18 December 2018 on hkstrategies.com:
http://www.hkstrategies.com/united-kingdom/en-uk/going-going-gone-future-cash/

Blog post: Alice in Blockchains-Land: In it for the money

Regrets, I’ve had a few. Maybe too few to mention, but there are still a few: I started looking into Bitcoin at around 2011, when its value was around $2.

I found the concept fascinatingly anarchistic and considered buying 50 BTC, to see how it worked. I thought too long about where I could legally spend Bitcoin. As BTC’s value crept up to $30 and I still had not managed to work out how to use Bitcoin, I decided not to bother.

Despite the nagging feeling of having missed something huge, virtual and cryptocurrencies still fascinate me. I do not believe that cash or cards are contemporary means of payment anymore. Similarly, I do not believe that the payments industry is the only industry on the verge of a complete technology-driven make-over. It is the Blockchain – a decentralised ledger recording data transmissions – that will change all industries forever.

A holy grail for transactions

Powering Bitcoin and many of its relatives, Blockchain has traditionally been associated with financial services, and cryptocurrencies in particular. This was the focus of CES 2017. But Blockchain is more. It makes data equally accessible for various parties. It makes records transparent and auditable, and cannot be altered – which means that transactions are safe and secure. And cheap. It is the holy grail for any transaction, combining convenience with security.

This is reflected at this year’s CES, where the discussion is in the broader context of consumer electronics. Transparent yet secure and cost-efficient transactions are crucial for many applications, including smartphones allowing users to use encrypted communication as well as to make and receive payments without having to pay fees. The Blockchain can also power ride applications between car owners and users without third party involvement. There will be authentication of medical records, a requirement for personalised healthcare which will take off this year. Several countries already record real estate contracts on blockchains. Recruiters use the Blockchain to verify candidates’ experience and qualifications.

No regrets, honestly…

Late last year, adding “Blockchain” to a company’s name seemed to be sufficient to dramatically increase a business’s value. Similar to Artificial Intelligence or the Internet of Things, we will see a flood of Blockchain-related companies and applications entering the market this year. Most of them will either fail spectacularly or go unnoticed. A few companies though will be able to find and launch applications that matter, will be able to monetise them and gradually advance Blockchain technology. It is a revolution, but a gentle and constant one.

So do I really regret not having bought Bitcoin for $2 per piece? I am actually not so sure anymore. Not being a gambler I probably would have sold them for $5 anyway. For me though, the better option is to look at companies that invest into Blockchain-powered businesses themselves. They are the ones that are likely to succeed, in the long-term.

Published 10 January 2018 on hkstrategies.com:

https://hkstrategies.co.uk/alice-blockchains-land-money/

Blog post: The Rise of Bitcoin

Back in March 2013, Bitcoin reached an all-time trading high of more than £21. At that time, this was seen as a major development for the alternative currency which was launched in 2009, largely unnoticed outside the crypto-currency world. Since then, the situation has changed dramatically. What was seen as hype in March has now developed into a frenzy.

By the beginning of April, one Bitcoin was already worth £150. And since a US Senate committee hearing in November backed Bitcoin as a legitimate financial service, its value really took off: following a peak of £755 on 5 December, it is currently trading at around £550.

Why has Bitcoin some attractive so quickly? How exactly does Bitcoin work? And how do regulators see the currency? Here are some facts which describe what Bitcoin is - and what it’s not.

Published 13 December 2013 on entrepreneurcountry.com, read the full article here: http://www.entrepreneurcountry.com/united-kingdom/item/the-rise-of-bitcoin

Blog post: Perception is bitcoin’s biggest battle

Along with the general media attention bitcoin has attracted in recent months, there’s been much talk about whether bitcoin is merely a tool for financial speculation … or is a currency as real as any other, capable of being used to buy and sell goods, as well as for investment purposes.The media frenzy accompanying the bitcoin roller-coaster of late has resulted in a surge of demand. Transaction volumes are steadily increasing and more online outlets now accept bitcoin payments. Consequently, players in the bitcoin ecosystem have fared well: With $120 million (US) in trading volumes in March 2013 (as reported by Mt.Gox, the largest bitcoin exchange) and a trade commission of 0.6 percent, this equates to revenues of around $1 million per month.With low operating costs, that means substantial profits. This has led some to speculate that the bitcoin marketplace could create billion-dollar businesses. Even if this might be exaggerated, bitcoin – and bitcoin exchanges in particular – could in fact become attractive investments for venture capital firms at some point.


Published 8 May 2013 on coindesk.com, read the full article here: http://www.coindesk.com/how-investment-worthy-can-bitcoin-be/

Blog post: 7 things you thought you knew about Bitcoin (but that are wrong)

Bitcoin has made headlines again yesterday, reaching an all-time trading high of more than £21. This is a significant development for the fairly new alternative currency, which started at Zero in 2009. Bitcoins has slowly and quietly become a global phenomenon which is featured prominently in the media, and has started to attract the special attention of global regulators.

So how exactly does Bitcoin work? Here are seven myths which describe what Bitcoin is, and – more importantly – what it not is.

Published 01 March 2013 on whiteboardmag.com, read the full article here: http://www.whiteboardmag.com/7-things-you-thought-you-knew-about-bitcoin-but-that-are-wrong/

Blog post: Amazon Coins proves that virtual currencies (real threat or not) are here to stay

Amazon’s announced today that it will launch Amazon Coins in May 2013. Clients will be able to purchase apps on Kindle Fire with Amazon’s proprietary virtual currency. Amazon Coins, which are planned to be launched in May, will be pegged to the US dollar and can be bought using existing Amazon accounts.It’s a move that breathes new life into virtual currencies. At last, as some may say who believe that an alternative money system will make commercial transactions easier and smoother.

Published 6 February 2013, read the full article here: http://www.whiteboardmag.com/amazon-coins-proves-that-virtual-currencies-real-threat-or-not-are-here-to-stay/

Blog post: Digital Currencies: No Threat to Their Real Counterparts - Yet, PYMNTS.COM

There has been much speculation about the fate of the Euro over recent months. Maybe a bit too much as it is difficult to predict (and tiring to hear) what will or will not happen to a currency which is still in its youth, in historical terms. These recent developments in the currency arena however have prompted a renewed focus on alternative currencies, so let’s take a look at these – their future may be easier to predict too, after all.

Published 24 April 2012, read the full article here:

https://www.pymnts.com/news/2012/digital-currencies-no-threat-to-their-real-counterparts-yet/